MONTANA TRIBAL COLLEGE TRANSFERS:
THE UNIVERSITY OF MONTANA
1990-1995 EOP DATA
by
Rodney L. Brod, Ph.D.

Professor/Researcher/Consultant
Department of Sociology
The University of Montana
rodbrod@selway.umt.edu
Prepared for:
Montana TRACKS: How are Indian studentsdoing in the Montana University System?Montana Indian Education Association
18th Annual Conference
"Visions for the New Millennium"
Holiday Inn
Great Falls, MT
April 10, 2000
MONTANA TRIBAL COLLEGE TRANSFERS:
THE UNIVERSITY OF MONTANA

1990-1995 EOP DATA
by
Rodney L. Brod

Introduction

In cooperation with and support of the American Indian and Minority Achievement TRACKS Program of the Montana University System, data regarding American Indian students transferring to The University of Montana (UM) from Montana Tribal and other colleges. The data reported here were obtained as part of a larger study (see Brod 1995; Brod and Carlisle 1996, 1997, 1998) in the summer of 1995 from the Educational Opportunity Program (EOP), a federally funded TRIO program at UM.

The full database consists of background and academic indicators that were collected from all American Indians attending UM from Fall 1990 through Spring 1995. Starting with over one hundred original variables, the number for this research paper was reduced to a set of twenty measures. These variables consist of one main dependent (or outcome) indicator, graduation and 19 independent predictor variables, such as background and matriculation information, and relevant academic variables such as total terms registered, cumulative credits, and grade point average (GPA).

The full EOP data set population consists of a total of 769 American Indians identified as being UM students or eligible to take credits from Fall 1990 through Spring 1995, and while previous analyses (Brod and Carlisle 1997, 1998) have investigated the 709 (92%) students from that population who actually attempted one or more credits the first term at UM, this paper reports specifically on the 421 (59.4%) of those credit-generating Indian students who transferred to UM from other institutions during that same time frame. Before presenting the major results of the academic success and graduation of those Indian transfer students, particularly those coming to UM from Montana Tribal Colleges, some relevant personal and academic background characteristics are first summarized.

UM American Indian Transfer Student Profile 1990-95

The following profile summarizes the characteristics of the 421 American Indian transfer students attempting credits at The University of Montana during the five year period from Autumn 1990 through Spring 1995 (the comparative statistics provided on all 709 American Indians attempting credits their first term at UM also reported in this section are more fully reported in Brod and Carlisle 1998.

Background Characteristics of UM American Indian Transfer Students

The background characteristics in the EOP data set on credit-attempting American Indian transfer students used in this study consisted of gender, tribal designation and attending a Montana High School.

-- While over half (57.0%) of UM American Indian students graduated from a Montana high school, this is also true of those transferring to UM from MT Tribal colleges (51.1%), but is even less true for Indian transfers in general (46.3%).

-- Just over half (51.6%) of UM American Indian students are female and the same is true of those transferring to UM (51.5%); but an even higher percentage of MT Tribal College transfers are female (57.1%).

-- Under half (48.9%) of UM American Indian students designated a specific tribal affiliation, virtually the same figure for Indian transfer students (48.7%), but more than half (54.9%) of those transferring from Montana Tribal colleges designated a specific tribal affiliation.

Beyond those majority who were designated simply as "American Indian/AK Native" or "other," the tribal groups most mentioned by UM transfer students were: Blackfeet (17%), Salish/Kootenai (10%), Chippewa-Cree (6%), Other Tribes (4%), Northern Cheyenne (4%), Assiniboine (3%), Crow (2%), Gros Ventre (2%), and Sioux (2%). Among those transferring from MT Tribal Colleges, those same percentages are: Blackfeet (25%), Salish/Kootenai (17%), Chippewa-Cree (3%), Other Tribes (1%), Northern Cheyenne (3%), Assiniboine (2%), Crow (0%), Gros Ventre (2%), and Sioux (2%).

Academic Background Characteristics of UM American Indian Transfer Students

The academic background characteristics in the EOP data set used in this study consisted of transfer and matriculation status variables.

Transfer Status

Six in ten (i.e., 471 or 61.2%) of the 769 American Indians attending UM 1990-1995 transferred from other institutions of higher education, and 421 (89.4%) of them attempted credits actually attempted credits from 1990 through 1996. Of those attempting credits, about one third transferred to UM from Montana tribal colleges (i.e., 133), from MT non-tribal colleges (139), or from colleges outside Montana (149).

-- Almost four of ten of all American Indians transferred to UM from a college in Montana (including tribal and non-tribal colleges).

-- One in five (21.1%) of all American Indian students (one-third of Indian transfers) transferred to UM from a non-tribal Montana college.

-- About one in five (18.8% of) American Indian students, and about one-third (31.6%) of Indian transfers, entered UM from a Montana tribal college.

Matriculation Status

-- While the average age at matriculation of UM American Indian students is 23.8 years, with a median of 20.7 years, those respective figures are 26.1 and 23.5 years for Indian transfers in general, but are 28.2 and 26.0 years for MT tribal college transfers.

-- Nearly four in ten (37.9% of) UM American Indian students matriculated prior to the beginning of the study period (1990-1995) and ; the same is true for those who transferred, i.e., 41.3 percent matriculated prior to Fall 1990; however, this is true for only about one in three (33.8% of) MT tribal college transfers.

-- Almost half (48.8%) of American Indians at UM (1990-95) matriculated prior to Fall 1991; the same is true of MT tribal college transfers (49.6%), with slightly more (52.5%) of all those transferring in doing that.

-- While just under two-thirds (64.7%) of UM American Indian students matriculated as non-freshmen, nine of ten (90%) of Indian and MT tribal college transfers are non-freshmen.

First Term Academic Performances of UM American Indian Transfer Students

The EOP data set contained several important measures of first term academic progress that were found to be predictive of either graduation or one or more related long-term (cumulative) measures of academic success and these are summarized below for those at UM from Fall 1990 through Spring 1995.

First Term Credits Attempted, Dropped and Earned

-- In their first term at UM during the study period (1990-95), 709 American Indian students attempted at least one and up to 24 credits were attempted during their first term, for an average of 12.5 credits (with a mode of 12 and median of 13). The average is virtually the same for all Indian transfer students in general (12.3) and for MT tribal college transfers (12.6). Over eight in ten UM American Indian students (81.4%), Indian transfers (81.5%), and MT tribal college transfers (87.2%) attempted at least 12 (minimum full load) or more (and up to 24) credits.

-- Nearly half (46.1%) of UM Indian students dropped one or more credits during their first term at UM, with the average being 3.2 credits dropped; these respective figures are 44.2 percent and 3.0 credits dropped for Indian transfers and are 51.9 percent and 4.1 credits for MT tribal college transfers.

-- American Indian students earned a minimum of 0 and a maximum of 19 credits during their first term at UM, with a mean of 9.3, a mode of 12, and a median of 9 credits earned. The mean credits earned was 9.3 for all Indian transfers and 8.5 for MT tribal college transfers.

-- Just under half (47.1%) of UM American Indian students earned a minimum full load of 12 or more credits during their first term and ten percent (or 74) earned no credits in their first term during the 1990-95 period at UM. Similarly, 48.0 percent of Indian transfer students earned 12 or more credits, while 11 percent earned no credits. Only 44.4 percent of MT tribal college transfer students earned 12 or more credits and 15 percent earned no credits their first term at UM.

First Term GPA and Academic Standing

-- In their very first term during the 1990-95 period, the 709 UM American Indian students earned an average GPA of 2.15. On the average, the 421 Indian transfer students earned 2.23 while 133 MT tribal college transfers earned a GPA of 1.92.

--Over a third (36%) of all UM American Indian students earned less than a 2.00 GPA during their first term at UM; the comparable figures are 31.5 percent for Indian transfers but 42.1 percent for MT tribal college transfers.

--Twelve percent (87) of 709 credit-attempting American Indian students earned a grade point of 0.00 at UM. During their first term at UM, of the 421 Indian transfer students, 12.6 percent (53) earned a GPA of 0.00, and for the 133 MT tribal college transfer students, 18 percent (24) earned a GPA of 0.00.

-- At the end of their first term, nearly three in ten UM American Indian students (or 29.3%) and Indian transfers (28.0%) were officially identified as experiencing some kind of academic warning or suspension (i.e., were not in "good standing"); among MT tribal college transfers this figure was over one in three (34.6%).

Cumulative Academic Characteristics of UM American Indian Students

The following section summarizes findings regarding the cumulative academic characteristics of the American Indians attending The University of Montana.

Cumulative Terms, Credits and GPA

UM American Indian students' final (or latest) cumulative total terms, GPA, and credits earned are summarized for the six year period (1990-96).

-- UM American Indian students attended an average of 4.5 terms (semesters since Fall 1992, quarters prior to that), with a mode of two and a median of three. A similar average number of terms was found among Indian transfer students (4.3) and Montana tribal college transfers (4.2).

-- UM American Indian students accumulated an average of 82.0 semester credits (but 38% of the students had earned credits before this 1990-95 period), with a median of 78 and a mode of zero. As would be expected, Indian transfer students accumulated an average of 97.5 (and up to 224) credits, while the Montana tribal college transfers earned 96.0 credits.

-- Though attempting one or more credits during the 1990-95 period at UM, all but twenty (or 3%) of 709 credit-attempting American Indian students had accumulate at least one or more credits (through summer of 1996). Virtually all transfers (99%) and Montana tribal college transfers (98.5%) had accumulated one or more credits during that same period.

-- American Indian students' final or latest average cumulative GPA (during 1990-96 at UM) was 2.16, with a median of 2.25 and a mode of 0.00 (46 persons or 6.5% earned a cumulative GPA of 0.0). Indian transfer students earned a 2.24 GPA, with a median of 2.33 and a mode of 0.00 (6.7% earned the latter). Montana tribal college transfers cumulated a 1.97 GPA, with a median 2.11, but a mode of 0.00 (9.8% received this).

--Nearly three of ten (29.8% or 211) American Indian students at UM (1990-95) had accumulated at least the minimal number of credits for graduation (130 during this time period) and up to 238 credits (about 7% attempting credits were graduate students) through the Spring of 1995; as a necessary but not sufficient condition for graduation, this single measure was found (see Brod and Carlisle 1998) to be the best single predictor of whether or not the student graduated (R = .74) and explained well over half (55%) of the variance. Nearly one in four Indian transfers (38.5%) and Montana tribal college transfers (36.8%) had accumulated 130 or more credits during that five year period.

Educational Outcome: Graduation

At The University of Montana during 1990-95, a student could theoretically graduate with a total 130 semester credits; however, for various reasons some 74 students with the minimum were not able to graduate in the five year period. It also should be noted that the graduation figure used here represents all American Indian students attempting credits at UM, including nearly half who had just begun attending UM during the last half of this five year period.

-- I n general, about one in five (19.3%) or 137 American Indian students officially graduated from UM during the period from Fall 1990 through Spring of 1995.

-- However, over three-fourths (76.6%) of those American Indian graduates were transfer students. That is, nearly one-fourth (24.9%) or 105 of the 421 Indian transfer students graduated from UM, while over one in six (17.3%) or 23 of 133 Montana tribal college transfers graduated during that time period.

-- Generally, less than half (47.4%) of those UM American Indian graduating were able to do so in four or less years. However, nearly six of ten Indians transferring to UM did so in that amount of time, but more importantly, about two of every three (65.2% of) Montana tribal college transfer students were able to graduate in four or less years at UM.

Predicting Graduation of UM American Indian Transfer Students 1990-95

Using the pool of independent variables just described above, a logistic regression model (see SPSS 2000; Hair, et al. 1995) was employed to initially determine which of these measures would best predict whether or not a student was likely to graduate during the five year period from Autumn 1990 through Spring of 1995 (Brod and Carlisle 1998). A stepwise logistic regression model (see Table 1), produced five significant independent variables that were able to increase the overall prediction accuracy of the students' likelihood of graduating to 92 percent, 94 percent for those not graduating and 84 percent of those Indian students who did graduate.
Of the 18 potential independent predictors of graduation, the following variables entered in the following order of the stepwise solution:

1. CUM130 CUMULATING 130 SEMESTER CREDITS
2. CUMGPA CUMULATIVE GRADE POINT AVERAGE
3. EARN1 CREDITS EARNED FIRST TERM
4. MATBEF91 MATRICULATED BEFORE FALL 1991
5. MTINDCOL TRANSFERRED FROM A MT TRIBAL COLLEGE

Overall, a logistic regression model with these five independent variables accounted for two-thirds (67%) of the variance in the dependent variable, i.e., whether or not the student graduated.

Academic Performance at UM

Results indicated that among UM American Indian students at UM, the following academic performance measures constitute four of the five predictors of graduation during this five year period (1990-95).

-- The best predictor of graduating among UM American Indians is accumulating 130 semester credits (the minimum needed for graduation); it has a partial correlation = .28.

-- The second most powerful predictor of graduation is cumulative GPA with a partial correlation = .16; i.e., other factors being equal, the higher the final or latest cumulative GPA of UM American Indians, the greater their likelihood of graduating.

-- The third most powerful predictor of graduation is the number of credits earned at the end of the first semester enrolled at the university (partial r = .16); i.e., other factors being equal, the number of credits earned in the first semester increases the likelihood of graduating among UM Indian students.

-- The final academic indicator is positively related to graduation (partial r = .09); that is, compared to those matriculating later, Indian students who matriculated to UM before Fall 1991 have an increased likelihood of graduating during the five year study period (1990-95).

MT Tribal College Experience as a Predictor of Graduation from UM

Transferring to UM from a Montana tribal college was significantly related to graduation. Holding constant the UM academic performance variables outlined in the previous section, the analysis also indicates the following:

-- Compared to other University of Montana American Indian students, those transferring from Montana tribal colleges were significantly less likely to have graduated during this five year period; the strength of this relationship however was minimal (partial r = -.06).

Montana Tribal College Transfers and Graduation, Before and After Fall 1991

The finding that among UM American Indian students that there was a negative relationship between transferring from a Montana tribal college and graduating, initially appeared troubling, especially since nearly one-third (32%) of Indian transfers (and one-fifth of all Indian students) come to UM from MT tribal colleges.

When separating UM Indian students into two groups however, those who first matriculated before Fall 1991 and those who matriculated after that date, the data indicate a crucial reversal of that trend.

By viewing data over time, Figure 1 extends our knowledge and understanding of the overall trend found in studies by Brod and Carlisle (1997, 1998) and also illustrates the need for combining the data for those who matriculated before with those matriculating the first academic year (1990-91) of the five year study period.
Figure 1:

-- Those matriculating prior to and during the first academic year of the study period show the same graduation rates among Indian students transferring from MT tribal and from other colleges; i.e., prior to Fall 1991, those Indians transferring from MT tribal colleges to UM during that early period were in fact much less likely to graduate (24%) than were those transferring from other colleges (46-47%).

-- However, beginning Fall of 1991, a clear reversal of this trend occurred; while only 14 percent of the American Indian students who transferred to UM from other colleges were able to graduate in the next four years, nearly one-fifth (18%) of the Indian students transferring from Montana tribal colleges graduated in that same time frame.

-- Furthermore, for those transferring to UM in the following academic year (1992-93), this positive trend appears to be even stronger. That is, among American Indian students transferring to UM during 1992-93, Indian students from other colleges were able to graduate during the next two years at about the same rate as in the previous year (13%), whereas over one in four (27% of) Montana tribal college transfers graduated in that same time frame.

Clearly, these later graduation rates among American Indian transfers from MT tribal colleges are encouraging and warrant much greater attention as additional years of data become available. Currently, in cooperation with the EOP program at UM, a research project (Brod and Shanley 2000) has been proposed that would add five more years of data to be added to provide ten years of information (1990-1998).

Summary and Implications

Analyzing student data from at least a five year period (1990-95) has been proven to be minimally sufficient for obtaining enough "graduating" American Indian cases (one-fifth of the population) and to very accurately distinguish graduating and non-graduating cases at a major four year institution. Clearly however, having a longer period to investigate would provide more American Indian "graduates" to study. Additional years will be added to the data base period as they become available.

Initially, we also find that academic variables are much more powerful than are personal background or pre-university variables in predicting academic success as measured by graduation. Like many institutions of higher education, The University of Montana routinely gathers important measures of prior academic success like high school GPA or college achievement test scores from matriculating freshmen, but typically does not obtain such information from transfer students. As sixty percent of American Indian students do transfer to The U of M, such prior academic measures are generally missing or incomplete at best. Until such pre-UM precursors of graduation become available for all students, studies assessing their predictive efficacy will necessarily be limited to data available on matriculating freshmen only.

Although the combined set of cumulative measures of latest or final GPA and credits earned are highly predictive of graduation, first term indicators of earned GPA and credits can serve as reasonable, albeit less powerful facsimile predictors of eventual graduation. Nevertheless, since cumulative academic variables like GPA and credits earned are found to be such strong predictors of the likelihood of graduating, further analyses are planned to determine predictors of these crucial intermediate measures of academic success.

The initial finding that holding other powerful academic variables constant, American Indian students transferring to UM from Montana tribal colleges were less likely to graduate, clearly does not hold up over time, at least in the two years (with graduates) following the Fall of 1991, after letters of agreement between UM and Montana tribal colleges were in place. Indeed, compared to those transferring from other colleges, American Indian transferring to UM from Montana tribal colleges appear to be much more likely to graduate than other Indians, and graduate in significantly less amount of time. Future research will need to closely monitor these important trends.

Another encouraging finding is that holding other major predictors constant, the (non-manipulable) background variable, gender is not related to graduation among American Indian students attending UM. Designating a specific tribal affiliation is also unrelated to graduation, other factors being equal. Similarly for Indian students, age at matriculation, matriculating at UM as a freshman or as a transfer student are not related to graduation. Matriculating from a MT college or a non-tribal Montana college are also unrelated to graduation, once more powerful factors enter the prediction model. But again, some of these variables may be relevant to predicting differences in other academic performances of American Indians, so they should be retained in future investigations.

While the variables included in this 1990-95 study predicted the overall likelihood of graduating very well for both the full (92%) and reduced (85%) logistic models, for better predictive purposes, a longer time frame appears to be required to obtain a larger population of Indian graduates, at least in a four-year university like The University of Montana, and again this appears to be especially true of matriculating freshmen.

Another critical area likely be relevant to this graduation pattern, but was not included in this report is the extent to which American Indian students have difficulty in financing higher education. This factor is becoming even more important now that tribally controlled colleges are successfully producing more Indian people who want to pursue further higher education. Unfortunately, this population growth comes at a time when tuition costs at The University of Montana are increasing and total dollars available to American Indian students are diminishing. Therefore, a recently proposed study (Shanley and Brod 2000) will include student financial aid data that will determine the effects of unmet financial need on the likelihood of American Indian students graduating.
Finally, to better analyze the apparently improving pattern of graduation rates among the one fifth of American Indian students at The U of M who had transferred in from Montana's tribal colleges, it would be interesting to use logistic regression to determine which, if any academic differences set this group apart from their peers. While planned, such an analysis awaits the funding and the end of the 1999-2000 academic year, when five additional years of information (1996-98) will be added to the data set. This analysis will provide Montana's tribal colleges especially important and useful feedback on how their transfer students are faring at The University of Montana, the campus that consistently attracts three out of ten of all Indian students enrolled in the Montana University System. One older study of Salish Kootenai College transfers to The University of Montana has been completed and another one has been planned. As more accurate data are systematically collected by the Montana University System, similar studies should be performed with Indian students transferring from other Montana tribal colleges to UM as well as to the other campuses of the Montana University System.

Bibliography

Brod, R. L. (1995). Predicting American Indian Graduation: Logistic Regression Analysis of the University of 1990-1995 Educational Opportunity Program (EOP) Data. Montana TRACKS Task Force Meeting, Montana University System, Office of Commissioner of Higher Education, Kwa Taq Nuk, Polson, MT: October 26-28.

Brod, R. L. and J. C. Lundt (1995). Assessment of Ethnic Differences in a Montana Indian Reservation High School Using Logistic Regression. Special edition on the Domination and Resistance of Native Americans, Race, Gender, and Class, 3 (2): 59-74.

Brod, R. L. and R. S. Carlisle, (1997). American Indian Student Achievement at The University of Montana: Six Year (1990-1996) Data Summary of Fall 1990 - Su 1995 Cohort. Missoula, MT: The University of Montana, Educational Opportunity Program.

Brod, R. L. and R. S. Carlisle (1996). "American Indians in Higher Education - Graduation and Academic Performance: A Summary of The University of Montana 1990-1995 Educational Opportunity Program (EOP)," Montana University System Board of Regents Meeting, Helena, MT, June.

Brod, R. L. and R. S. Carlisle (1998). "Montana Tribal College Transfers: Graduation and Academic Performance of American Indians at The University of Montana - 1990-1995 Educational Opportunity Program (EOP) Data." Kellogg Family Collaborative, Tribal College Family Support Model, The University of Montana Gallegher Business Building, Executive Board Room, 383, Missoula, Montana 59812, April 30 - May 1, 1998.
Dodd, J. M., F. M. Garcia, C. Merccage and J. R. Nelson (1995). American Indian Student Retention. NASPA Journal.

Hair, J. F., Jr., et al. (1995). Multivariate Data Analysis with Readings, 4th ed. New York: Macmillan.
Lin, R. L., D. LaCounte, and J. Eder (1988). A Study of Native American Students at a Predominantly White College. Journal of American Indian Education, 27, 8-15.

Shanley, K. W. and R. L. Brod (2000). Native American Student Retention, research proposal, Missoula, MT: The University of Montana Native American Studies Department.

SPSS (1999). SPSS Regression Models, 9.0. Chicago: SPSS, Inc.

Zaglauer, H. P. (1991). The Role of a Tribal College in the Academic Performance of American Indian Students. Missoula, MT: The University of Montana, (unpublished master's thesis).
Endnotes